When is a recession coming? How are interest rates impacting the housing market — and what’s next for the Fed? Is AI — and ChatGPT specifically — coming for all our jobs? Should we all just become plumbers? To answer some of those questions, we’ve invited Bill Conerly back to the Measure Success Podcast. It’s also the first time we’ve ever had a three-time repeat guest. 

 

Bill is a senior contributor to Forbes, a Duke University PhD, and a consultant who connects the dots between the economy and business. He’s worked in economics and corporate planning at two Fortune 500 companies as well as a major bank. He’s spoken to over 1,300 audiences in five countries and 31 states. 

 

Tune into the full episode for more on Bill’s predictions about the economy, a potential recession, the labor market, the housing market, interest rates, artificial intelligence, and a lot more. 

 

Here’s a Glimpse of What You’ll Learn: 

 

• Why Bill predicted there would be a recession in the first half of 2024, plus what he thinks the Fed will do next
• More about the Fed’s risk management strategy and what that means for the potential for a recession
• The relationship between unemployment numbers and other forecasts, and why this will be a tough decade for companies in hiring mode
• More about the fact that we’re about to see the lowest growth of the working age population since the Civil War — and what that means for the future
• What the heck is going on with the housing market 
• The potential impact that the 2024 election could have on the Fed’s decision-making
• When Bill believes interest rates are set to come back down again — and why he thinks we’ll never see rates as low as 2020 
• What the “path to inflation” is, according to Bill 
• Bill’s thoughts on AI and how it might impact productivity and the labor market — plus his predictions for which types of jobs will be most and least affected
• Some of the things companies should be cautious about ChatGPT and other AI tools
• A book Bill recommends, plus why the mindset described in that book helps him make his own forecasts

 

Resources Mentioned in This Episode: 

• • • • Conerly Consulting website
      • Bill Conerly’s author page on Forbes
      • “The Flexible Stance: Thriving in a Boom/Bust Economy” by Bill Conerly
      • “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction” by Philip E. Tetlock
      • Buy a copy of “Lost at CEO: An Entrepreneur’s Guide to Strategy” by Carl J. Cox 
      • 40 Strategy
      • Contact 40 Strategy
      • Carl J. Cox on LinkedIn